ArchivesThe data shows businesses accumulated $116.5 billion worth of inventories, the largest increase since the first quarter of 1998. Expectations were that inventories would grow by a much more modest $86 billion. Inventory growth was amazing last quarter, regardless of how you break it down. Unfortunately, domestic demand rose a very modest 1.8%.
Strong inventory accumulation in the face of slow domestic demand means businesses will be working off their high inventory levels for an extended period of time. Future GDP growth will probably weaken noticeably – dragging job creation lower as it goes.
This morning's Non-farm Payroll figure came in right on the money, but the Unemployment rate droped to 7.0%. You probably know that I think that calculation is flawed, at best. The mortgage market took an early hit, but have started to recover. We'll see if can sustain the rally.
[ 2 comments ] ( 738 views ) | permalink |
( 3 / 1840 )This will be the last blog until December 2nd, due to the Holiday. I want to wish everyone a wonderful and safe Thanksgiving.
The Conventional 30 year fixed rate remained the same for the shortened week at 4.375%. This rate would be available for a borrower who has excellent credit (credit score of 740 or greater) and could be obtained with little or no points if you make the right size of down payment.
The Conventional 15 year fixed rate remained the same, as well, at 3.375%, assuming the same parameters as mentioned above.
SHOULD I LOCK OR FLOAT?
There is some concern that we will see increased volatility in the market. I would say it's about 50/50 to lock or float. If you are not risk averse, then go ahead and float your rate. If you are more conservative, then lock it in.
[ 2 comments ] ( 2279 views ) | permalink |
( 3 / 1405 )There was some choppiness in the mortgage market this week, but not much overall movement.
The Conventional 30 year fixed rate remained the same at 4.375%. This rate would be available for a borrower who has excellent credit (credit score of 740 or greater) and could be obtained with little or no points if you make the right size of down payment.
The Conventional 15 year fixed rate remained at 3.375%, assuming the same parameters as mentioned above.
SHOULD I LOCK OR FLOAT?
It is relatively safe to float your rate today, but there is still some risk involved. If you are not risk averse, you could choose to float your rate. If you are more conservative, then lock it in. Take the money and run.
[ 2 comments ] ( 8451 views ) | permalink |
( 3 / 2458 )A few weeks ago I wrote about JPMorgan Chase, the country's biggest bank, agreeing to a $13 Billion settlement with the Federal Government over selling shoddy mortgagesto investors during the real estate boom. It is expected that the agreement will be signed today.
I find a number of things interesting here, but mainly the distribution of the funds. $4 Billion will go to the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). All well and good, but last week JPMC reached a $5.1 Billion settlement with the Federal Housing Finance Authority (FHFA), $4 Billion of which is part of today's $13 Billion, so instead of the $9.1 Billion JPMC may claim they paid, it is truly only $5.1 Billion. They are being allowed to use $1.5 Billion to write down loan values so they can forgive some borrower debt. Roughly $500 Million (a mere pittance?) would go to lowering borrower's monthly payments, while the remaining $7 Billion would go to various other measures, such as providing low-to-moderate income loans. Is this really now considered a penalty?
There are still 9 other investigations pending, apparently including private litigation over $100 Billion in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). It is rumored that they have set aside $23 Billion as a hedge against any additional losses.
As I write these figures, I'm amazed at how large they are and how ordinary they have become. $1 Billion. It makes me think of Dr. Evil, from the Austin Powers movie, when he says "$1 Million". $1 Billion doesn't even seem like a lot anymore, unless it's yours.
[ 4 comments ] ( 295 views ) | permalink |
( 3 / 1503 )We saw some positive signs this week that last Friday's Job's Report was overblown, enabling rates to hold firm or even drop slighlty on the shorter amoritzations. The Conventional 30 year fixed rate remained the same at 4.375%. This rate would be available for a borrower who has excellent credit (credit score of 740 or greater) and could be obtained with little or no points if you make the right size of down payment.
The Conventional 15 year fixed rate dropped slightly to 3.375%, assuming the same parameters as mentioned above.
SHOULD I LOCK OR FLOAT?
Market conditions are less volatile than at the end of last week. It is safer to float your rate today than it was last Friday, but there is still some risk involved. If you are not risk averse, then go ahead and float your rate. If you are more conservative, then lock it in.
[ 2 comments ] ( 166 views ) | permalink |
( 2.9 / 1317 )Back Next
